You Have Roughly a 1/3 Chance of Flopping a Pair

Q: What Are The Odds of Flopping a Pair in No Limit Hold'em?

A: What are the odds of flopping a pair in No Limit Hold'em or Limit Hold'em?

That is one of the most commonly asked questions.

Let's say that you are dealt A-K, and you are fairly certain, based on the way that your opponent has been playing, that he is sitting on a pocket pair.

What are the odds that you will flop a pair, likely resulting in you taking the lead in the hand?

According to the numbers, you have a 32.43% of flopping a pair, which is roughly a 1/3 chance.

Obviously, as the turn and river are dealt, you will have a better chance of making a pair, which is why many coaches will advocate calling at least one more bet (on the flop) to see if you can improve by the turn.

By the time that the river card is dealt, you will be roughly 50/50 to have a pair, though if your opponent continues to bet on the flop and turn, you might have a hard time continuing to call down.

-

It is always important to mix up your play so that you are not just simply hoping to hit pairs on the flop and then folding if nothing comes.

You need to ask yourself questions like: what range of hands might your opponent have? Who has position? If I was the pre-flop raiser, should I put out a continuation bet? If I do hit a pair on the flop, how can I extract as much money from my opponent as possible?


Back to Answers